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    February 20, 2007

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    Kevin R

    I wonder if some of this could be blaimed on better marketers shifting their dollars away from TV allowing the branding-by-repetition crowd to buy more time

    Paul

    Gareth, it strikes me that 10-15% of 17-35 year olds is not a huge, or even problematic, number. At least not in terms of some of the data I have seen over the years on ad avoidance. Back in the mid 90s, 75% of people claimed they channel surfed on the ad break - which is not that different from hitting the FF button on a DVR, at least in terms of the outcome.

    The Hussein/Lowery chart is interesting, but something doesn't quite 'smell' right about it. Consumer attitude trends tend to follow patterns. The point of change is often a gradual realization. As a growing attitudinal trend reaches a peak, you'd expect the marginal increase to be slightly less year over year and as it falls, the marginal decrease to increase slightly year over year - resulting in more of a parabolic trend. That chart looks like that at some point a growing trend simply stopped and reversed due to... something. I really don't know much about the data so this could be wrong. Unless the quality of the advertising dropped like a stone in 1991, you'd expect SOME type of stable/flat trend before it started going south.

    Gareth

    Watch this space Paul. We're looking at some US data - MRI - to try and see what the experience is in the States.
    You're right about the trend pattern looking a little odd but I think the point that people like ads less today than they used to is a truth we need to recognize.

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