A better view on investment

I posted a couple of days ago about the video of Mark Earls and Duncan Watts at the  ARF conference.  Watching this again the other night, I was struck by what I think is a brilliant analogy and piece of outsight by Scott Thomas who runs evaluation at Naked.
He makes the point that successful investment decisions today are less about a rigorous masterplan (copytesting, singular campaign you put everything behind, etc.) and more about behaving like an investor in options.  You place a lot of small bets, see which seem to be gaining traction and then scale up.  Probably something obvious I've missed before, but a much better way of talking about complexity, brand molecules and the 1 in 20 rule.  It's an analogy right for the boardroom, rather than right for a herd of planners.  And a much better map of a world where the truth is that most things fail. 

Comments

[Noah BrierNoa]

I thought that was fascinating as well. Between the making lots of small bets and having a diverse portfolio (even competing products) it sounds a lot like marketing is turning to investment strategies.

[lee]

Only part way through the video, but the analogy certainly puts the title of 'Planner' into a different context, doesn't it?

[gareth]

good lord it sure does. and thats the problem with all the stuff coined in the manufacturing, mass media era. now there's an interesting brief - if we're not planners what are we (in common sense, non bs...)